News I iCET Officially Releases the BestECV™ Accounting Model for Commercial Vehicle Electrification Solutions

Project Background

In 2024, sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China reached 12.866 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.5%—a growth rate largely consistent with that of 2023. China’s NEV industry is now approaching a critical “EV–ICE parity” milestone. Compared with the relatively mature and stable passenger vehicle market, the commercial vehicle segment is entering a period of rapid expansion and has become a new engine driving industry development.

Despite the leapfrog growth of new energy commercial vehicle sales, users still face major challenges, including high upfront purchase costs, frequent charging or refueling needs, and heavy vehicle weight. Accurately identifying electrification breakthroughs in different operational scenarios—while enabling fleets to navigate a safe and efficient transition and anticipate costs, benefits, and potential risks—has become essential for ensuring the high-quality development of electric commercial vehicles.

To address these challenges, the Energy and Transportation Innovation Center (iCET) launched the BestECV Optimal Electric Commercial Vehicle Project in 2020. Through three phases of work, the team developed the BestECV™ Accounting Model, which integrates scenario-based electrification assessment, fleet electrification cost calculation, emissions-reduction accounting, and model selection guidance. The model provides both theoretical and technical support for fleet electrification.

BestECV™ Accounting Model & Expert Insights

Hao Chunxiao highlighted that environmental policies promoting zero-emission freight must focus on three core dimensions: vehicle – fleet – enterprise. Measures include tightening restrictions on conventional fuel vehicles to accelerate the scale-up of zero-emission alternatives, and introducing performance-based management policies for 39 key industries that incorporate clean-transport indicators into enterprise environmental ratings. This “policy constraints + market incentives” dual-track mechanism will continue expanding, with future explorations into establishing “clean transportation pioneer zones” to help drive broader regional and national freight decarbonization. Hao emphasized the value of the BestECV™ model in data empowerment and encouraged deeper multi-party data integration to enhance accuracy, timeliness, and industry relevance.

Gan Jiahua noted that in priority application scenarios such as urban logistics and short-haul transport, electrification is shifting from policy-driven to market-driven growth. For long-haul operations—where technical bottlenecks and high purchase costs remain—current policy efforts are centered on transport structure optimization, advancing modal shifts such as “road-to-rail,” “road-to-water,” and last-mile NEV connections. These measures create buffer space for technology maturation and larger-scale adoption. Regarding the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, Gan stated that promoting NEV trucks remains a core decarbonization task, with policies focused on differentiated scenario-driven deployment and dynamic adjustment of key indicators to align with evolving technology and market demand.

Cheng Ying shared insights from pilot projects on new energy heavy-duty trucks in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Given the diverse performance requirements across transport scenarios and the complexity of freight categories, scenario-specific, precisely matched technical products are key to accelerating heavy-duty truck electrification. Although policy support and technological advances have significantly improved lifecycle cost competitiveness, challenges persist—especially in charging and refueling infrastructure coverage, the maturity of NEV insurance systems, and differences in operational models compared with ICE vehicles. Cheng stressed that freight transition must respect market dynamics, advancing through breakthrough pilots and strengthening the synergy of policy – technology – scenario to cultivate endogenous market demand and shift from “policy-driven” to “market-led” adoption.

During the dialogue session, Zhao Rui emphasized that scenario segmentation is the core logic of NEV commercial vehicle deployment, while cross-sector collaboration forms the foundation for high-quality development. Pilot experiences in leading regions demonstrate that a closed-loop model of “scenario pilots – positive data feedback – dynamic policy optimization” can effectively reduce trial-and-error costs and generate replicable practices. Zhao noted that promoting new energy commercial vehicles is not a solo effort, but a collaborative undertaking across the entire value chain. Only by using scenario segmentation as the starting point—accumulating experience through pilots, enabling data-driven transparency, and leveraging precise policy tools—can the industry move from “sparks of progress” to “a sweeping trend,” ultimately building an ecosystem that is technologically feasible, economically viable, and mutually beneficial.

In his concluding remarks, An Feng, Honorary Executive Director of iCET, highly praised both the practical insights shared in the case studies and the depth of perspectives highlighted in the dialogue session. He stressed that advancing commercial vehicle electrification requires scenario-based thinking, as well as coordinated innovation across the industrial value chain to establish a multidimensional system driven by government guidance, market forces, and technological support.

An introduced the progress of the BestECV™ platform, noting that it has already integrated nationwide commercial vehicle sales data, a refined vehicle-parameter database, and a dynamic policy library. The project team will continue upgrading model functions and deepening the integration of data, AI technologies, and real-world application scenarios.