Scaling Sustainable Aviation Fuel in China Taking-off Green (III) : Addressing Market Barriers and Certification Challenges Across Key Technology Pathways

As the aviation sector accelerates its transition toward net-zero emissions, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has emerged as one of the few viable pathways for achieving substantial emissions reductions. Yet despite growing policy support and industry commitments, SAF deployment remains constrained by high production costs, limited supply, and evolving regulatory requirements. This report argues that scaling up SAF is not merely a fuel supply challenge, but a broader system-level challenge shaped by the interaction of three critical factors: market support mechanisms, technology pathways, and sustainability certification frameworks. Together, these factors will determine the pace, scale, and direction of SAF deployment worldwide.

This report is the third installment in the “Taking Off Green” series published by the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation (iCET). Building on previous research, this report examines how different policy instruments—including tax credits, carbon pricing, blending mandates, and procurement mechanisms—can help address SAF’s cost premium and stimulate market demand. It also assesses the strengths and limitations of major SAF production pathways and highlights the growing role of sustainability certification in shaping technology competitiveness, policy eligibility, and market access. The report concludes that achieving large-scale SAF deployment will require the coordinated evolution of market incentives, diversified technology pathways, and robust certification systems, providing insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and investors navigating the next phase of aviation decarbonization.